Bitcoin is having a tough year. Traders are betting it’s going to get worse

AI Market Analysis

The news shows a sharp decline in Bitcoin futures to sub‑$59k, the lowest since Oct 2024, and a surge in put buying on the iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT). Options data indicate market participants expect further downside, with a 48% probability of a >10% drop by end‑July and implied volatility around 53, suggesting heightened uncertainty. This bearish sentiment could spill over to other crypto assets, risk‑off equities, and crypto‑linked ETFs, while safe‑haven assets like the US dollar and Treasuries may see modest gains.

For the broader market, the heightened put activity may pressure crypto‑related stocks (e.g., mining firms, blockchain ETFs) and could trigger short‑term capital outflows from risk assets. However, the modest chance of a 10% rally (≈55%) leaves room for a potential bounce if positive news emerges. Traders should monitor Bitcoin’s $60k psychological level and IBIT option flow for clues on near‑term direction.

Original Article

Bitcoin is having a tough year. Traders are betting it’s going to get worse

Bitcoin futures tumbled Thursday to as low as $58,995, the lowest price since October 2024, bringing its drawdown from last year’s high to about 52 percent. The biggest cryptocurrency has been battling with the $60,000 level all year – first in February, where it found support, then again the first two weeks of June, before a pop to over $67,000.
Options traders are treating this break like it could be the tip of an iceberg.
The iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF (IBIT) traded just shy of 1.1 million options Thursday, almost double the average the past thirty days, according to Cboe LiveVol data. Put volume more than doubled calls. Traders bought 275,000 puts, compared to just under 129,000 calls, according to data from ThinkOrSwim.
Of the $187 million premium traded in IBIT, $144 million was in puts, according to SpotGamma. Of the top 20 most-traded contracts by volume, 19 were puts. The most popular contract was the 32.5 strike put expiring Friday, which needs another 4.5% slide in bitcoin to pay off.
Implied volatility in IBIT is just 53, meaning options market-makers expect a little over a 3% move per day.
According to the options prices in the July 31 expiry, there’s about a 48% chance IBIT will fall below $30.5, or drop another 10%, between now and the end of next month. The odds of a 10% rally by that time are a bit higher, around 55%.
Flows weren’t much more positive in Michael Saylor’s Strategy, where 505,000 puts and 403,000 calls traded. Traders bought 83,000 puts and sold 72,000 calls, while buying just under 58,000 calls.
“Amidst rip-roaring AI stock performance, BTC has struggled in price and in garnering attention,” said Alexander Blume, CEO of Two Prime, an institutional asset manager for bitcoin. “The wobbly behavior of Strategy continues to scare the market, harkening back to other major blow ups the market has seen.”

Source: CNBC

Disclaimer: this content is informational analysis only and does not constitute investment advice.